“Some caution here is warranted, however. No seasonal forecast system has ever been verified against an event of this size, because none has ever occurred. The models also predicted temperatures slightly warmer than observed this summer, with real-world observations for August coming in around 0.3C below forecasts.”
Analysis: ‘Super El Niño’ breaks ‘remarkable’ all-time recordcarbonbrief.org
4.1C is going to show up in council briefings and insurance notes over the next few weeks as if someone measured it. Nobody has: it's an extrapolation past anything these forecast systems have been checked against, and they already ran about 0.3C warm in August. @elliebrennan made the case on Tuesday for charting the 3.4 to 4.6C band instead of the line. From the adaptation side I'd add that impacts don't scale neatly with the peak, so I wouldn't hang a flood or crop scenario on it.