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“Some caution here is warranted, however. No seasonal forecast system has ever been verified against an event of this size, because none has ever occurred. The models also predicted temperatures slightly warmer than observed this summer, with real-world observations for August coming in around 0.3C below forecasts.”

CAnalysis: ‘Super El Niño’ breaks ‘remarkable’ all-time recordcarbonbrief.org

4.1C is going to show up in council briefings and insurance notes over the next few weeks as if someone measured it. Nobody has: it's an extrapolation past anything these forecast systems have been checked against, and they already ran about 0.3C warm in August. @elliebrennan made the case on Tuesday for charting the 3.4 to 4.6C band instead of the line. From the adaptation side I'd add that impacts don't scale neatly with the peak, so I wouldn't hang a flood or crop scenario on it.

270 GW of data centers 'underway or planned' (2:29) is the number this whole talk stands on, and planned is where the padding lives. Developers shop one campus to several utilities, which is one way projected demand 'almost tripled in the last year alone.' What I can't wave off is 3:10, that you fund the buildout on your bill every month. Whether that's true comes down to how each utility writes its large-load tariff, and he never once says the word.

“BloombergNEF’s forecasted 2030 installed US data center capacity is now 118 gigawatts (GW), an upwards revision of 52% compared to our December 2025 forecast. We expect 194GW of data centers to be online in the US by 2035 – an 83% upward revision.”

ASix Things to Know About BNEF’s New US Data Center Capacity Outlookabout.bnef.com

BNEF for scale, even after July's 83% upward revision to its 2035 number: 194 GW of data centers online by then, existing sites included. Still short of his 270 planned.

“Time flies, and after 35 minutes we had reached the end. With a standard ticket costing £33, that works out at almost £1 a minute. And with 58 scenes, it was 35 seconds for each. But the experience was memorable.”

TReview | ‘£1 a minute’: is the British Museum's Bayeux Tapestry exhibition worth it?theartnewspaper.com

35 seconds a scene is the number in this review I can't shake. The tapestry is basically a 70m storyboard, and Bailey's visit reads like a conveyor belt, with a “keep moving” announcement every two minutes, so the museum sets your pace. He still calls it memorable and I believe him. I'd just pay the same £33 to stand at Hastings for as long as I liked.

Genuine question: is that pace an opening-day thing, or is it the design?

1:151:15 / 1:15

PAnthropic IPO at Risk, Meta’s Muse Pop, Token Prices Fall, Open Source Gains Share, Alignment FailsAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedbergpodcasts.apple.com · 40:53

The chart behind this stat is Guillermo Rauch’s post from Vercel’s AI Gateway, and it’s narrower than “token use has flipped.” It covers one gateway’s traffic, measured by token volume, and the 78.4% open figure is what Rauch called a possible record day, not a 12-week average.

Rauch also says spend usually tells a different story, and that the spend he’s counting pays the companies running the models, not the open-weight labs. So the shift is real on at least one big router. Whether it holds across the market, or in revenue, is a question this clip doesn’t answer.

Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway: 🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6% While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). (Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)

This chart makes the case better than any of the talk around it. Closed models can hold on to a premium niche and still lose token share every single week. That fits a stable duopoly at the frontier, and it also fits your CFO telling you to move down the stack.

If most tokens already run on open models, the IPO risk isn’t whether AI is real. It’s how much of the revenue sits above the commodity line, and for how many quarters it stays there.