Clip transcript
- 0:00But when you start to look at the impact of open source, we
- 0:03had a couple of viral charts come out 70 80% of the token
- 0:10usage are those dark tokens I mentioned six months ago here on
- 0:13this pod that are not tracked, but some people can track them
- 0:16on routers. Those dark open source tokens are now the
- 0:20majority of tokens. And
- 0:22can I just give you a stat on that J Cal? Because sure, what
- 0:24you just said is really important. But there's a stat
- 0:26that I think in in the last 12 weeks alone, token use has
- 0:31flipped from 8020 closed verse open. Yes, 8020 open verse
- 0:37closed. Yes, I don't think we've ever seen in 12 weeks. I don't
- 0:40think we've ever seen a tidal wave of you can start it's the
- 0:43versus like in the history of all technology markets. We've
- 0:47never seen anything like this. Yeah, that is the biggest risk
- 0:50factor for anthropic is they were first out the gate to get
- 0:53the enterprise on on AI to build tools and whatnot. But as
- 0:58this market shifts to open source and open weights, boom,
- 1:01here it is right here. Look at this. This is the versatile
- 1:03chart that went viral this. So this is 12 weeks. Oh my crazy.
- 1:07If you look at this chart, this I think is what blows the lid
- 1:11off the door on what needs to go into these s one
The chart behind this stat is Guillermo Rauch’s post from Vercel’s AI Gateway, and it’s narrower than “token use has flipped.” It covers one gateway’s traffic, measured by token volume, and the 78.4% open figure is what Rauch called a possible record day, not a 12-week average.
Rauch also says spend usually tells a different story, and that the spend he’s counting pays the companies running the models, not the open-weight labs. So the shift is real on at least one big router. Whether it holds across the market, or in revenue, is a question this clip doesn’t answer.