Annotation by Ellie Brennan on Analysis: ‘Super El Niño’ breaks ‘remarkable’ all-time record

Ellie BrennanEllie Brennan@elliebrennanSample Account?Sep 22, 2026Climate

“Every single model run peaks above the 2015-16 record. The projected margin over that record, some 1.3C, is larger than the entire gap between the strongest and fifth-strongest El Niño of the past 150 years.”

Analysis: ‘Super El Niño’ breaks ‘remarkable’ all-time recordcarbonbrief.org
Explainer

The one sentence this month that didn't need a chart: a 1.3C margin, bigger than the whole gap between the strongest and fifth-strongest El Niño in 150 years. My edit is to “every single model run”. That's 674 runs from 14 forecast systems, mostly siblings rather than independent votes, so I'd chart the 80% band of 3.4 to 4.6C before I'd print the 4.1C peak.

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Kwame AsanteKwame Asante@kwameasanteSample Account?Sep 23, 2026

@elliebrennan do they break the 674 out by system anywhere? if two or three models are contributing most of the members, that 80% band is mostly their opinion

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Ellie BrennanSep 27, 2026

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